BYU vs Notre Dame - Relevance, Retribution, and a Primetime Showdown
Notre Dame is coming back to Provo and College GameDay is coming with them. This is quite likely the biggest game ever played at Lavell Edward Stadium, with a chance to change the national narrative around BYU's season. This is the game most fans circled on the calendar as soon as it was announced at the end of last season.
The Cougars proved Friday that they can move the ball without LJ Martin. Bear Bachmeier threw for 329 yards, ran for another 109, and led BYU to a 24-10 win over Iowa State. It was a much needed offensive recovery after a miserable showing at Fort Worth, and it gives us reason to hope without Martin again for this week's showdown.
Notre Dame comes into the game as a two score favorite. The Irish have allowed only 58 rushing yards per game, their quarterback CJ Carr has thrown 16 touchdowns with only 1 interception, and after a 51 point victory over Stanford this past weekend, they are cruising into Provo firing on all cylinders.
Last Week
My Iowa State preview picked BYU to win 27-13. The actual score was 24-10, so the 14 point margin was accurate while giving both offenses 3 points too much credit.
Going into the game I wanted to see a bounce back from Bear Bachmeier, and he delivered in spades. 22 for 30 passing for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns with another 109 yards on 9 carries. It's one of his best games as a Cougar and was a perfect response to a game where he threw for only 62 yards.
I wanted the backup running backs to keep the offense moving behind the offensive line and for Bear to distribute the ball well enough that the defense couldn't stack the box. We got the passing part down, but the rushing attack depended heavily on his legs. Rex, Tonga, and Eka only managed 54 yards on 17 carries, 3.2 YPC, while Bachmeier had 109 yards on 9 carries at 12.1 YPC.
That worked Friday against they Cyclones. I'm concerned that the running back's weren't more effective against a mediocre defensive front. Asking Bear to reproduce that share of the rushing attack against Notre Dame is a high risk. He needs to be able to trust his backs to produce so that the responsibility to move the chains doesn't rest on his shoulders alone.
Special teams also had several painful moments on punt returns, including decisions to field punts from the 7 and 6 yard line, another from the 3 that was fumbled and recovered at the 1, and a muffed punt to start the 4th quarter that was recovered by the Cyclones. That's a performance that simply can't be repeated.
Game Details
When: Saturday, October 17th, 5:30pm MDT
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
TV: ABC
Spread: Notre Dame -10.5
The Game That Might Have Been
As most BYU fans remember, we nearly got this exact matchup in the Pop-Tarts Bowl to end last season.
After both teams missed the playoff, Notre Dame withdrew from bowl consideration. It was expected that #11 Notre Dame would have been BYU's opponent in the bowl game, a chance for the first teams out to show why they deserved a spot in the playoff. Instead, BYU played Georgia Tech in a close game with similar circumstances to this week; down Martin and Moa and depending on back-ups Enoch Nawahine and Jovesa Damuni to carry the rock.
Bear rose to the moment and showed he can win difficult games throwing the ball without Martin to lean on. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 325 yards, earning bowl MVP.
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman's team finished last season 10-2 after losing the first 2 games and chewing through the easy part of their schedule on a 10 game winning streak. CJ Carr finished the 2025 season with 2,741 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions.
The main running back duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are gone, replaced by a trio of backs.
Freshman Jonaz Walton leads the running game with 409 yards. Against Stanford, he ran for 181 on 13 carries, including a 97-yard touchdown, as Notre Dame won 58–7.
Through 6 games, the Irish average 44 points and 457 yards. Carr has continued to improve. He has completed 70.8% of his passes for 1,378 yards, with 16 touchdowns and only 1 interception, for a scorching 186.7 passer-efficiency rating (PER). This past weekend he went 14 for 20 for 181 yards and 3 touchdowns before the backups took over. The game was quickly out of hand and never in question.
The defense has been equally impressive, allowing just 11 points and 214 yards per game. The Fighting Irish defense smothered Stanford even with several important defenders missing the game due to injuries.
Stanford also isn't BYU. Notre Dame has in large part been unchallenged this year, allowing them to pile up impressive totals and high averages across the board. The only game that was even relatively close was two weeks ago at North Carolina, a game they won by 11 points. North Carolina currently ranks #39 in FPI, similar to #35 Arizona that BYU also beat by 11 at home, taking a knee inside the Arizona 5 to end the game.
The BYU Side
As established, Martin is going to miss several more weeks and Moa is out, though rumors out of practice this week suggest he is practicing and could potentially see the field this Saturday. I wouldn't expect much from him this week, if he sees the field at all.
The remaining backs will need to step up in a hurry. Tonga has 176 rushing yards, Rex 115, and Eka 101. Bear has 239 and 4 rushing touchdowns.
Legend Glasker leads our receivers with 378 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kyler Kasper has another 3 receiving touchdowns, and Walker Lyons gives Bear a solid target at tight end with 13 catches. I want those options involved early, before a series of quick failed drives allows Notre Dame to dictate the game.
Multiple players who have been out or limited are expected to return for the game, including linebacker Siale Esera and safety Raider Damuni. Nickel back and punt returner Canon DeVries is listed as likely, and possibly linebacker Isaiah Glasker. Cade Uluave and Jake Clifton played a tremendous game last week at linebacker and would only benefit from having Esera and Glasker back this week to provide needed depth.
What to Look For
Between Martin and Bear, BYU has had an incredible rushing attack, with a rushing success rate of 53.1%, good for sixth nationally. Success rate measures how often a play gains enough for the down and distance to stay on schedule. The other backs have been inconsistent.
Notre Dame allows only 25.4% of successful rushing attempts, the very best in the country. Opponents are averaging only 2.1 yards per carry. I am quite concerned that we will struggle to run the ball outside of Bachmeier, forcing him to run more often and take extra hits. I was hopeful going into last week because Iowa State has been mediocre at stopping the run. Unfortunately, there were missed blocks on a few key plays, and outside of that backs struggled to correctly read the holes or gain yards through contact.
I don't expect us to run for the usual 224 yards we've seen this season. I think it's likely we see a lot of the same from last week - jet sweeps to Legend Glasker or Jojo Phillips, speed options, and outside runs. Hopefully with more game experience and more reps for the backs in practice we see better success.
Bear's ability to keep the ball is still going to be a critical part of the offense this week. So are quick throws to receivers and the reliance on the screens we've seen all year. If the defense has to hesitate before committing, our line has a better chance to create the few yards we need to stay on schedule.
If BYU is within a score, expect more of the conservative offense approach. Third and long, particularly on our own side of the field, has become a play for field position with almost no attempts throw the ball beyond the sticks. To be fair, we often see Bachmeier come to the line and check out of the called play on third and long. I also believe that's what he's being asked to do - look for a specific matchup and if it isn't there, check to the conservative run and live to fight another day. Roderick has alluded to trying to call an NFL-style game; protect the football, win the turnover battle.
On the other hand, if Notre Dame gets up early, we may see Bear forced to pass in third and long situations. Our receivers have struggled to consistently get open down the field the past two weeks.
Bear enters this game with 1,033 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Friday reminded us that he can make accurate throws and produce big gains.
His radar shows his strength as a runner and strong avoidance of sacks or costly turnovers.
BYU has allowed havoc on only 7.7% of plays, second nationally. Havoc captures disruptive plays such as tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions, and passes defended. Our pass protection has been solid, very few runs are stopped for a loss, and as frustrated as we may be at times with seemingly conservative play calling, the offense rarely turns over the ball.
Notre Dame creates creates havoc at a rate of 22.8%, third nationally. More than 1 in 5 plays results in a turnover, tackle for a loss, or a pass breakup. This is where the replacement backs have to know their assignments, where Bear has to get the ball out when the throw is available, and where Glasker, Kasper, and the tight ends have to finish catches. We can't afford to waste a clean pocket or a well placed throw in this game. While we shouldn't have the rainy conditions we saw in Fort Collins to contend with, Notre Dame's defense is every bit as good and better than TCU's.
Can BYU's defense continue it's run of dominance?
The Cougars have only allowed 174 passing yards per game at 5.5 yards per attempt, which places them at 15th nationally. We've done a great job of limiting what opponents get from their completions. Carr has been hitting 9.4 yards per attempt, with the passing offense at 10th nationally for success rate.
BYU’s pass rush has become more productive over the past two games, recording 7 of its 11 season sacks against TCU and Iowa State. In Fort Worth, Nusi Taumoepeau and Tausili Akana ended consecutive early possessions with third-down sacks, and Jake Clifton added another on TCU’s final drive. Those were valuable stops in a game where our offense needed every extra opportunity. The Cougars finished with 4 sacks, helping hold the Frogs to 10 points.
Against Iowa State, BYU added 3 sacks for 20 lost yards and held Jaylen Raynor to 98 passing yards on 29 attempts. The Cyclones converted only 2 of 13 third downs and managed just 49 total yards before halftime. Pressure and coverage worked together to keep them from finding much downfield, even when our offense left scoring opportunities unfinished.
That is encouraging heading into Notre Dame, but their offense has been operating on an entirely different level than TCU or Iowa State. Getting pressure on Carr is going to be key to disrupting this offense. I want us to make him move his feet and make hurried decisions without giving him an uncovered receiver behind the rush. We need pressure, but a quarterback who has taken only 2 sacks in 6 games isn't going to stand around waiting for it.
Keys to the Game
Give Bear help - The backs will need to average better than 3.5 ypc and fill their roles in pass protection so he has time to make his throws.
Pressure Carr - While 4 sacks would be nice, we just need him to feel heat in the pocket and force him to take the underneath throws instead of looking downfield.
Convert in the red zone - Points will be tough to come by against this defense; we can't come away empty in the red zone. Make the catch or kick the field goal, every possession counts.
Prediction
I think our defense is absolutely good enough to keep this competitive. I also think Notre Dame's run defense will force us to be creative in ways Iowa State couldn't, and Martin's absence will be felt in short yardage situations.
Look for a couple of trick plays in this game; a double pass from the outside screen, a throw back to Bachmeier on a short yardage play. We'll need everything we've got and have a chance to shine on primetime in what could be the most viewed game in program history.
Bear is a gamer, and having him behind center means we always have a chance. I expect him to make enough plays to keep the crowd involved into the second half.
I do question if we can force pressure often enough and if we can convert in the red zone when we get there. Carr has been even more efficient as a passer than Bachmeier and last weeks play calling in the red zone was head scratching at times. The margin for error is considerably thinner than any other game we've played this season.
If we win the turnover margin and convert in the red zone, we can absolutely win this game.
I'll take BYU to cover the points and keep the game close, but I think Notre Dame makes enough plays to leave Cougar fans disappointed.
Notre Dame 27, BYU 20
Comments