BYU vs Iowa State Preview - Can the Cougars Win Without LJ Martin?

BYU came home from Fort Worth 4 - 0, moved up to No. 8 in the AP poll, and gave us plenty to worry about along the way.

The defense was excellent. Bear Bachmeier found a way to win a game in which almost nothing came easily for the offense. We also watched LJ Martin and Isaiah Glasker leave the game, and Tuesday night's initial Big 12 availability report lists both as out for Friday against Iowa State.

Iowa State is 3–2 and coming off a 45–42 win over West Virginia. Running back Aiden Flora ran for 212 yards, scored 3 rushing touchdowns, and threw 2 more. That is a heck of a way to make sure BYU is paying attention to where he is at all times.

With Notre Dame coming to Provo next week, it would be easy for fans to spend Friday thinking about who might be healthy by then. I want to see what the guys who are healthy now can do against a team capable of making us pay for looking past them.

Last Week at TCU

The TCU preview predicted BYU 30, TCU 20. I picked the Frogs to slow down the running attack, for Bear to make enough plays through the air, and BYU to win as TCU's offense got in their own way with mistakes. We came away with the win, covered the 6.5 point spread, held them to only 72 rushing yards, and won the turnover margin.

The rest was considerably uglier than expected.

BYU managed 216 total yards, including only 62 passing yards, with Bear completing 11 of 24 attempts. The rain certainly made handling the ball difficult, as noted by errant passes and a few mishandled snaps. Martin's early exit also removed our best offensive weapon, particularly in the rain, and TCU's defense was every bit as good as advertised. We also made the job harder with penalties and wasted downs.

I am happy to take a road win under those circumstances. Don't get me wrong, the broadcasters were very clear about how long it's been since BYU won at Fort Worth, and this was a good win. I also expected 30 points, and we needed nearly 6 minutes of determined running late in the fourth quarter to reach 17.

Bear ran for 66 yards and both BYU touchdowns. His 21 yard score finished the drive that finally gave us some breathing room. On defense, 4 sacks and Faletau Satuala's interception return helped carry an offense that spent much of the night struggling to get started.

That is encouraging for the defense and a reminder that Bear can win in more than one way. It also gives Aaron Roderick plenty to work on during a short week.

Game Details

When: Friday, October 9, 8:15 p.m. MDT / 10:15 p.m. EDT

Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo - Homecoming

TV: ESPN

Line: BYU -10

Iowa State

These are very different Cyclones from the team BYU beat 41–27 in Ames last season.

Iowa State finished 8–4 in 2025, then went through a massive rebuild. Jimmy Rogers arrived from Washington State, bringing a staff and a substantial group of players with him. The team has no returning offensive or defensive starters who had made at least 6 starts the previous season.

Rogers has won a national championship at South Dakota State and spent last season rebuilding Washington State. Offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl and defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit are now helping him do it again in Ames.

Through 5 games, they are off to a decent start. Iowa State beat Southeast Missouri 38–10 and Bowling Green 55–7, lost 16–13 at Iowa and 31–17 to Utah, then won a wild game against West Virginia this past weekend.

The two big nonconference wins against inferior opponents inflate the averages. The close game at Iowa and the comeback against West Virginia speak of resilience and suggest we should not expect this team to disappear when things get difficult.

If there is one player to remember from their roster, it's Aiden Flora. He has 594 rushing yards, and his West Virginia performance included a 63 yard touchdown run and the winning score with 1:57 left. He also threw 2 touchdown passes, including a 46 yarder. When a safety sees him coming toward the line, committing too quickly can leave a receiver alone behind the defense.

Quarterback Jaylen Raynor transferred from Arkansas State, where he threw for 3,361 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. He has 903 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this year. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 264 yards against West Virginia, his best passing yardage performance of the season.

The receiving production is spread among Dominic Overby, Cody Jackson, and Omari Hayes. Tight end Vince Benetti has 3 receiving touchdowns. BYU cannot spend the entire night staring at Flora because Raynor is doing a good job of spreading the ball around to their other playmakers.

The other side of the West Virginia game is just as relevant. Iowa State allowed 518 yards, including 291 on the ground. The Cyclones found a way to win, but their defense gave up enough to lose.

The BYU Side

Tuesday night's initial Big 12 availability report lists Martin, Isaiah Glasker, and Sione Moa as out. Raider Damuni is doubtful, and Cannon DeVries is probable. That moves the discussion beyond Monday's hope that Martin or Glasker might be ready: BYU needs a plan to win without them.

Initial report posted Tuesday, October 6, at 9 p.m. CT. BYU has 3 players listed as out. Iowa State lists safety Drew Surges, defensive end Caden Crawford, and defensive tackle Ka'Mori Moore out; linebacker Rylan Barnes and tight end Christian Greenlaw are questionable.

With Martin and Moa out, more responsibility falls on Preston Rex, Journee Tonga, and Devaughn Eka.

I don't expect any one of them to replace everything LJ brings. I do expect the offensive line to give them chances, and the offense to remain willing to run the ball, because these backs have shown glimpses of skill in the limited carries they've had. Tonga contributed to the late drive at TCU. Those were meaningfull carries in a game where every first down mattered. The biggest question I have for the freshman backs is if they can pick up their blocking assignments when they aren't carrying the football.

On defense, Jake Clifton is the replacement for Isaiah Glasker, with Siale Esera expected back and listed behind him. That gives us experience to work with, but Glasker's range and ability to affect a play are going to be missed against Flora.

Bear's passing numbers came back to earth in Fort Worth. It was his poorest performance as a passer in 18 games for the Cougars. I'm willing to give him a pass given the poor playing conditions and strength of the defense he was facing. This week will give him plenty of opportunities to redeem himself. He now has 704 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 153.4 passer efficiency rating. The updated Big 12 comparison still puts him ahead of Raynor in both passer efficiency and QBR, though he has dropped towards the middle of the pack in conference.

I want to see Bear recover his accuracy without feeling he has to manufacture a big play every possession. His legs saved us last week. This week, the offense needs him to distribute the ball well enough that Iowa State has to defend the whole field.

What to Look For

Can the line make the running back by committee work?

BYU ranks No. 2 in both rushing success rate and rushing EPA per play for the season. Success rate measures how often a play gains enough yardage for its down and distance. Our running game has been good at getting the needed yards consistently.

The Cougars average 235.5 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry. Iowa State allows 149.2 and 4.2, ranking 85th in yards allowed per carry and 73rd in rushing success rate allowed.

All statistics cover the season. BYU's strongest advantages are in the rushing measures, although Martin helped create those numbers and it remains to be seen how the team fares without him.

The line-yard comparison is especially encouraging: BYU ranks #7 offensively, while Iowa State ranks 70th defensively. That measure gives more weight to the first few yards of a run, where blocking has the greatest influence. There is reason to believe our line can create room even if the back taking the handoff changes.

I want to see Rex and Tonga get us to second and 5 consistently, make the right cuts, and keep the offense out of obvious passing downs. We can use Bear's legs, but I would rather not ask him to be our entire running game again. Staying ahead of the sticks also helps those same backs avoid needing to block a heavy pass rush as often.

Can Bear be a threat through the air this week?

Iowa State's pass defense is more respectable than its run defense. The Cyclones rank 30th in passing success rate allowed, and opponents have converted only 30.3% of their third downs, ranking 24th. BYU converts 57.4%, fourth nationally. Keeping those attempts manageable will matter.

There is still an opportunity when a pass does succeed. Iowa State ranks 99th in passing explosiveness allowed. The chart is measuring expected points added (EPA) on explosive plays. The main takeaway is that Iowa State has had a fair amount of success preventing successful pass plays, but when passes get through they tend to be for bigger plays.

BYU ranks 85th in passing EPA per play, with last weeks ugly performance dragging down the season averages, compared with No. 2 in rushing EPA. We need a better passing performance this week, especially with Martin unavailable. I honestly expect we will see a return to form at a home without the rain.

If our backs earn enough attention, Bear should have opportunities behind the linebackers. We need him to recognize those chances and deliver an accurate ball to Legend Glasker, Kyler Kasper, and the tight ends.

Can we contain Flora?

Iowa State averages 197.4 rushing yards and 5.2 yards per carry, but ranks 108th in rushing success rate. Those numbers describe an offense that's getting good total yardage without consistently gaining enough on each run - in other words, they get enough big plays but it comes in fits and spurts.

Flora's 63-yard touchdown against West Virginia is a good example of why that can still be dangerous. We can win several downs and give it all back with one blown run fit.

BYU allows 75 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry. Our defense ranks in the top 30 in rushing success rate allowed, rushing EPA, line yards, and second-level yards. This is a matchup the front should be able to win. The third-down defense still needs improvement: BYU has allowed a 40.4% conversion rate, good (bad?) eough for 97th. Iowa State converts only 34.5%, ranking 107th, so this is an opportunity to get off the field more consistently.

BYU's season run defense is strong across most measures. Iowa State's yardage and efficiency rankings are better than its rushing success rate, making containment especially important.

Raynor has been good, but not great, and basically everything. He does a decent job avoiding pressure and is above average on early passing downs. There isn't an obvious weak point in his game at this point in the season, though he's also not shown to be particularly explosive and can be inaccurate at times.

And if Flora hadn't already done enough, he's also a punt-return threat, averaging nearly 18 yards per return with a touchdown this season. Fuller Shurtz and the punt team can have an excellent night by making him spend it calling fair catches.

What the Adjusted Numbers Say

While the raw offensive numbers from last week showed an impressive outing for the Cyclones, the season to date opponent adjusted numbers are very average. As a reminder, EPA measures how much a play changes expected scoring value; adjusting for opponents helps account for the different schedules teams have played. For more details on understanding EPA, please see the glossary.

BYU's offense is at .183, ahead of Iowa State's .127. TCU's offense was a known weakness going into the game and it's fair to say Iowa State is more of a threat to move the ball than what we saw last week. The Cyclones are also still a good step down from Arizona who only managed 17 points in Provo.

Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA for BYU opponents, 2026 through week 5. Iowa State's season EPA sit's below Arizona and Colorado State, very average.

Lower is better. Iowa State's defense has been less effective than both TCU's and Arizona's after adjusting for opponents.

On defense EPA measures how well opponents have moved the ball and therefore lower is better. BYU is at .070 and Iowa State at .153. Even without the rain issues last week, TCU was a very good defense, among the best BYU will face this season. It will be significantly easier for the offense to find room this Friday.

JTHOM Analytics gives BYU an 89% chance to win this game. BYU aligns pretty closely with what the model views as the #12 team in the coutry, slightly below BYU's current AP ranking at #8. Season to date, Notre Dame and Utah still project to be the most difficult games on the schedule.

I agree that this is a game BYU should win. The injuries may allow the game to be closer than it would have been, but the Cougar's profile is more complete and should withstand a few missing players.

Iowa State still leads the series 5–1. Last year's win was our first, and the Cyclones won 45–13 on their last visit to Provo in 2023. This is a completely rebuilt team so those results don't tell us much, but we have seen enough of Iowa State this season to know better than to dismiss them and look ahead to Notre Dame.

Keys to the Game

1. Make the running game work with the guys available - Give Tonga, Rex, and Eka room, stay ahead of schedule, and use Bear's legs without making him carry every possession.

2. Keep Flora contained - Finish tackles, respect the halfback pass, and cover punts well. Make Iowa State earn its touchdowns through sustained drives.

3. Clean up the wasted downs - Fewer pre-snap penalties, accurate throws when receivers are open, and no turnovers that give the Cyclones an easy way into the game.

Prediction

I expect BYU to have more success moving the ball than it did at TCU. Iowa State's defense has allowed enough on the ground that the o-line should be able to help the back-up running backs, and Bear should find more opportunities in the passing game.

I also expect Flora to make a few plays. The Cyclones have shown enough offense and enough resilience that I would be surprised if this were comfortable before halftime.

With Martin and Isaiah Glasker listed out, I still trust BYU's defense to win more downs, force Raynor into difficult situations, and give our offense enough chances to take control.

BYU 27, Iowa State 13