#10 BYU @ TCU - Dangerous Frogs
Updated: Oct 1
BYU's first three games have gone about as well as fans could have asked. The Cougars are 3-0, Bear Bachmeier has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, LJ Martin is living up to his pre-season accolades, and injuries have been relatively minimal. That's been enough to get BYU into the top 10 of the AP poll and give the team and fans hopes of another magical season.
I'd say we've seen a lot of good things on both sides of the ball. The offense has been moving the ball well with a high success rate, and the defense has been good enough while giving lots of snaps to backups and underclassman. This week presents a new challenge in the form of a defense with some teeth.
TCU is 2–2, unranked, and coming home after an ugly loss at UCF. The Horned Frogs have committed 7 turnovers and scored 13 points or fewer in both losses. They also have the best defense BYU has faced. TCU is allowing 86 rushing yards and 12.5 points per game. The defense is experienced, physical, and disciplined - good enough to keep them in the game while their offense tries to figure itself out. This version of the Horned Frogs is reminiscent of the 2012 BYU team, with a sputtering offense holding back a great defense.
Last Week
BYU’s 41–23 win over Colorado State was essentially over by halftime.
LJ Martin ran for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the first half. BYU led 31–7 at the break, stretched the margin to 38–7 after three quarters, and finished with 559 yards of offense. Colorado State managed only 82 rushing yards.
The previous preview predicted BYU 37, Colorado State 16. I expected BYU to establish the run, build an early lead, and force the Rams prove they could create offense without multiple big strikes downfield. All three happened. Martin finished with 176 yards on 15 carries, and Legend Glasker added 5catches for 131 yards.
What I did not expect was the sloppy finish. Bear Bachmeier threw his first interception of the season, Treyson Bourguet threw another, and the backups allowed 16 fourth quarter points. The final margin was almost exactly as expected, but the path to get there wasn't as clean as the first three quarters indicated.
I am not going to lose sleep over the fourth quarter of a game BYU led by 31 points, but I also don’t want to pretend it didn’t happen. TCU is too good on defense to hand them short fields, and a game that should be BYU's to lose can stay close for a long time if the Cougars waste possessions.
Game Details
When: Saturday, October 3, 6:00 p.m. CDT / 5:00 p.m. MDT
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN
Line: BYU -6.5
TCU
The Horned Frogs finished 9-4 last season and beat No. 16 USC in overtime in the Alamo Bowl. They averaged 30.7 points and 421.5 yards per game, but most of the passing offense left with Josh Hoover’s transfer to Indiana and the departures of Eric McAlister, Joseph Manjack IV, and tight end DJ Rogers.
Sonny Dykes hired Gordon Sammis from UConn to run the offense and brought in Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig to replace Hoover. Craig threw for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. He is 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, experienced, and athletic enough to create outside the pocket.
Through 4 games at TCU, the results have been mixed. Craig is 90 of 132 (68.2%) for 1,213 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The Frogs are averaging 303 passing yards, but a lot of those yards have not turned into points.
TCU opened the season with a 15–10 loss to North Carolina in Dublin. The Frogs scored on their first two possessions and did not score again. They beat Grambling 63–7 and Arkansas State 31–7, then this past weekend lost 21–13 at UCF.
The UCF game tells us more about TCU than the two blowouts. Craig threw for 310 yards but no touchdowns, tossed 2 interceptions, and took 4 sacks. The Frogs turned the ball over 4 times, committed 11 penalties, and collectively ran for 33 yards on 27 attempts. That is a lot of self inflicted damage when the defense had kept the game there for the taking.
UCF gained only 266 yards. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins completed 19 of 20 passes, but those completions produced only 160 yards. TCU kept the ball in front of it, controlled the run, forced turnovers - the offense just couldn't find a way to put points on the board.
That's a succinct summary of the Frog's season. The defense keeps doing enough to win, the offense keeps finding ways not to.
The Horned Frogs are allowing 264.8 yards and 12.5 points per game. They have given up only 86 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Opponents have converted 12 of 49 third downs, just 24.5%.
For those who've been reading my posts, you already know I put a lot of weight on adjusted EPA as an indicator of how good a team really is. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each play impacts the odds of adding points to the scoreboard. You can find more details in the glossary, specifically the sections about EP, EPA, and Explosiveness. The top right quadrant on the chart below is for teams that are balanced, with a strong offensive and defensive EPA. TCU sits near the bottom of the Big 12 offensively but has one of the best defensive profiles in the conference. BYU is the more balanced team, though the fourth quarter against CSU lowered the overal defensive EPA.
When accounting for strength of opponent's offences, TCU's defense is head and shoulders better than any team BYU has faced so far this season and has even outperformed our own defense. If the offense can find ways to move the ball this week, it gives me reason to hope we can find ways to score against Notre Dame on Oct. 17th. Our good, but not great, position on the chart matches what I have seen on the field - a couple of long opening drives allowed, streches of excellence, broken up with missed assignments and drive extending penalties. I would say the talent is there for the defense to rise throughout the season.
The BYU Side
Bear didn't need to do much against Colorado State because the running game ended the competitive portion of the game so quickly. He completed 12 of 16 passes for 227 yards and got to show off the deep ball a little bit.
The interception was a poor decision and thrown behind his target. It was also his only interception in 62 attempts this season.
Through three games, Bear is 44 of 62 for 642 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1interception. He has added 64 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, taken only 2 sacks, and generally kept BYU out of the negative plays that change games.
Compared to the rest of the Big 12, we're getting really solid quarterback play. Bear’s 186.7 NCAA passer-efficiency rating leads the conference, and his QBR is above 80. Craig has put up more yards, but Bear has been the more efficient quarterback in almost every way.
The radar chart shows the same thing with more detail. Bear ranks near the top of the country in success rate, EPA per play, early down EPA, and explosive rate. He has been strong in pass and rush EPA while avoiding sacks and turnover damage. The success rate is particularly noteable because it measures how often a team is getting the needed yards based on down and distance, and he is among the most consistent in the entire country at doing enough at the right time. There is no obvious weak point in his early season profile.
By comparison, Craig has put up some impressive total numbers, but has struggled with turnovers, sacks, and not converting all of the yards into actual points.
What to Look For
BYU’s offense is No. 1 nationally in both rushing success rate and rushing EPA per play. Again, success rate measures how often a play gains enough yardage to keep the offense on schedule. In plain English, BYU is not living on one or two long runs. The Cougars are getting the yards they need over and over again, as well as finding some big plays throughout the game.
The Cougars are averaging 262.7 rushing yards and 6.7 yards per carry. They rank No. 4 in line yards and No. 2 in second-level yards. The offensive line is getting great movement and creating holes, while Martin is turning those creases into explosive gains.
The Frogs rank No. 4 in defensive rushing EPA, have allowed 2.9 yards per carry, and have surrendered 86 rushing yards per game. Opponents have struggled to create efficient runs at all, not merely big ones.
This is where I want to see BYU stay patient. Martin is not going to average 11.7 yards per carry every week, and a few early runs may go nowhere. That is fine. Keep handing him the ball, force them to stop this rushing attack for the full 4 quarters. Use Bear on the edge just often enough that the backside cannot collapse. If they start stacking the box, we have the receivers to win one-on-one matchups, and Bear has been money on play-action.
The chart also highlights a potential mismatch. BYU is averaging only 219 passing yards because it has not needed to throw very often. The Cougars average 10.1 yards per pass attempt and rank near the top of the country in passing success rate and EPA.
TCU allows only 178.8 passing yards per game, but it ranks 85th in yards allowed per attempt and 84th in defensive passing success rate. The Frogs have kept raw yardage down without consistently winning every pass down.
If TCU decides Martin will not beat them, Bear should have opportunities behind the linebackers and outside the safeties. Legend Glasker, Kade Kasper, and Walker Lyons have all shown they can punish that decision. This may be a game where the passing attack is used to open up the run.
Can BYU keep TCU one dimensional?
TCU’s offense is almost the mirror image of its defense. The passing totals look dangerous while the overall efficiency is much less impressive.
The Frogs average 303.3 passing yards and 9.1 yards per attempt. Their passing success rate ranks 65th, however, and their passing EPA ranks 57th. Craig can create explosive throws, but the offense has struggled to string positive plays together without a sack, penalty, or turnover getting in the way.
The glaring deficiency is the run game. TCU ranks 100th in rushing yards per game, 108th in yards per carry, and 116th in rushing EPA. Its 33-yard performance at UCF was not an isolated statistical quirk. The offensive line has not consistently created holes, and the backs rarely reach the second level cleanly.
BYU has allowed 76 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry.
For me, the best version of this game isn't one where BYU blitzes Craig every down. I would rather see the front holding down the run game without extra help and the safeties staying disciplined on the back end so that Craig has to make 6 or 7 straight completions to reach the red zone.
The player who worries me most is Jordan Dwyer. He missed time with a foot injury, then came back against UCF and caught five passes for 100 yards, including a 43-yard gain. BYU can't afford to lose him on a vertical route or turn a 12-yard completion into 50 with a bad angle. TCU has committed 7 turnovers, allowed 9 sacks, and been penalized 30 times. The more snaps the Frogs need, the more chances they have to damage their own drive.
This would be a good week for Akana, Tanuvasa and the rest of the front to make a larger impact without coach Poppinga having to manufacture pressure.
Third Down Trends
BYU has converted 19 of 31 third downs, an absurd 61%. TCU’s defense has allowed 12 conversions in 49 attempts, an equally absurd 24.5%. Both numbers will come back toward earth. The direction they move on Saturday may decide the game.
If the Horned Frogs can force field goals and get off the field on third-and-5, they can keep this game in the low 20s and let the crowd become a factor. If BYU converts third down and finishes drives, I find it unlikely that TCU’s offense can keep up.
That is also why turnovers matter more this week than they did in Fort Collins. TCU’s defense doesn't need any help. Bear’s interception against Colorado State didn't threaten the outcome. The same throw in Fort Worth might.
JTHOM Analytics schedule model places TCU as currently the third-hardest game on BYU’s schedule, behind Notre Dame and Utah. It gives a hypothetical team rated No. 12 a 69% chance to win in Fort Worth.
The last two meetings with TCU have been polar opposites - a beatdown loss to TCU in 2023, 44-11, and a dominating win last season in Provo, 44-13. The Cougars finished that game with points on their first 7 possessions, held TCU to 1 of 10 on third down, and finished with 4 sacks plus 2 interceptions.
BYU enters the game coming off a bye with the rest and preparation advantage. TCU is coming off a difficult loss in Orlando that produced plenty of criticissm for Dykes, Craig, and the offense. Don't discount the frustration and desperation coming into play at home. Giving up another opening drive touchdown could make this a very uncomfortable game.
Keys to the Game
To avoid a repeat of the last trip to TCU, here's what the Cougars will need to do:
Feed Martin - TCU will stop Martin more often than Colorado State, but will struggle to contain him for the full game. Keep the offense on schedule, make over-commitments to the box pay with shots downfield.
Make Craig play the long game - High completion percentage but short throws have led to sacks, penalties, and turnovers for the Frog's offense. Keep Dwyer in front of the secondary, don't stress the underneath game, and let their own errors end their drives.
Don’t give TCU free points - The Frogs will struggle to build touchdown drives, so don’t let their defense or special teams shorten the field. Protect the ball and make their offense earn every point.
Prediction
I expect Martin to have less room, Bear to face more third downs, and at least a few drives to end early. I also expect TCU to hit a couple of big throws and look much more dangerous at home than they did for most of the afternoon against UCF.
I also still trust BYU to play the cleaner game. The Cougars have the better quarterback, have only turned the ball over twice, and should be able to stop TCU's run game without selling out. TCU may be able to answer one or two scoring drives, but eventually turnovers will make the difference.
I'll take BYU to cover the spread, hold TCU below 100 rushing yards, and board the plane home 4-0.
BYU 30, TCU 20
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