BYU @ UCF - Back to Conference Play

This past weekend carved a permanent place in BYU football lore. College GameDay came to Provo and set a season high for viewers. The energy was held over to the game, with a raucous crowd that stayed on their feet for most of the broadcast. And what a game. What a huge moment, and our boys rose to that moment, with big plays all over the field and a cinematic last drive from the offense and a game clinching stand from the defense.

I watched from the Eastern time zone, with my kids staying up for the game. I always get animated during the games, but this is the first time I've seen every one of my kids locked in for the full game, feeling the stress with me as it came down to the wire. Other re-caps have said it better than I, but this is the kind of game that creates a new generation of fans, and I'm grateful that I got to have that moment with my kids.

And now we get to spend the week looking at a #2 next to BYU's name, and as fans, we get to enjoy the barrage of media coverage talking about our team with a level of respect that we haven't seen in decades, maybe ever.

Enjoy every bit of it. Keep the receipts and soak it in as the doubters have to consider how far this team can go.

With half a season in the rear view mirror and national expectations rising, we move on to the second act and the first team on our bright stage is the UCF Knights.

BYU heads to Orlando 6-0 to face a 3-3 UCF team coming off a bye. It's homecoming for the Knights, who have won all three of their home games. They have had two weeks to recover while we spent everything we had to take down Notre Dame.

I expect BYU to win. It's also fair to expect that UCF will give us their very best and can make us work for it.

What Saturday Changed

My Notre Dame preview picked the Irish to win 27-20, with BYU covering the 10.5 spread. I've never been so happy to have missed a pick.

I thought the defense would keep us competitive, but wasn't convinced we could produce enough offense without LJ Martin to finish the job. Four touchdowns in four redzone trips against their defense says otherwise. We had mistakes to clean up (no one is forgetting the special teams misfires), but we had elite protection from the o-line, a stellar game from Preston Rex, and we had the better quarterback.

BYU got College GameDay, the ABC primetime stage, and an undefeated Notre Dame team ranked No. 2. That's about as good an opportunity as we could ask for to show what this program has become under Kalani Sitake. The stadium looked incredible, the crowd delivered, and the national response has been hard to miss.

It matters for the Big 12, too. When the best teams in a league only beat each other, it's easy for people to argue about how good any of them really are. Saturday gives the Big 12 something concrete to point to. With big teams from the other major conferences looking less impressive last weekend, the Big 12 now has three teams ranked in the AP top 10.

That strengthens the case for multiple playoff teams. It doesn't settle how many deserve to get in, and what happens over the back half of the season will obviously be important. But a strong BYU team carrying a win over Notre Dame into the conference race helps everyone trying to establish that the Big 12's best belong alongside the best elsewhere. Even Utah fans had a reason to appreciate that win. Briefly.

For BYU, the playoff implications are especially encouraging after last season's disappointment, and the blatant bias in excluding BYU from the conversation at all. Winning the conference remains the clearest way to take care of our own business. This win also makes an at-large case much more credible if we fall short of a Big 12 title. I expect a BYU team that keeps winning to stay firmly in that discussion even if everything doesn't go perfectly in November or the championship game.

Game Details

When: Saturday, October 24, 1:30 p.m. MDT / 3:30 p.m. EDT

Where: Acrisure Bounce House, Orlando — UCF Homecoming

TV: FOX

Line: BYU −6.5

A Brief History Lesson

BYU leads the series 4-1 and has won the last three meetings. The two previous games in Orlando have been split, with UCF winning 31-24 in overtime back in 2014 and BYU winning 37-24 in 2024.

The 2020 Boca Raton Bowl was a comfortable 49-23 win where Zach Wilson threw for 425 yards. Last year's meeting had a stressful first quarter where BYU trailed 14-0 before recovered and outscored the Knights 41-7 over the final three quarters, closing the game at 41-21.

I think we would all prefer to skip the early drama in this years edition.

UCF

Scott Frost's first season back in Orlando ended at an underwhelming 5-7, including a 2-7 conference record. His second team has shown signs of life, but with dramatically different showings each week.

The Knights opened the season blowing out Bethune-Cookman 73-6, then promptly faceplanted in a 12-7 loss at Pitt. They rebounded by beating Georgia State 44-30, and had a nice win at home over TCU 21-13, but lost consecutive road games at Houston and Oklahoma State before their bye week.

Quarterback Alonza Barnett III began the season as the starter before a hamstring injury against Pitt moved Keyone Jenkins into the job. Jenkins has completed 70.3% of his passes for 806 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He threw four touchdown passes in the 42–28 loss at Oklahoma State.

That game was tied at halftime, and UCF was still within six early in the fourth quarter before a backward pass was returned for a touchdown. Oklahoma State has been better this season than I expected, and this game shows they can move the ball and stay competitive.

Duke Watson leads the running game with 483 yards on 70 carries, an impressive 6.9 yards per attempt, while Josh Derry leads the receivers with 28 catches for 304 yards. BYU needs to tackle Watson before those averages become a problem and keep Jenkins' underneath completions from turning into easy first downs.

The bye was much needed for the Knights. Frost deliberately gave his players substantial time off to get fresh for the second half of the season. This was a chance to recover after consecutive road losses, with several injured starters working toward a return. Barnett is still the biggest question, with bye week reports saying he's made encouraging progress, but no comment on him being ready for this week. Barnett was brought in from James Madison to lead this offense, and a return could change how much Frost asks his quarterback to create outside the pocket. With a hamstring injury, whether he can move normally matters as much as whether he can throw. I wouldn't assume we get either a fully healthy Barnett or an offense that looks exactly like the last four games.

The BYU Side

Among the many encouraging things from Saturday was the number of players involved.

It all starts up front with the offensive line. BYU didn't allow a single sack against Notre Dame and was recognized as the Big 12 offensive line of the week. Bear deserves all of the attention he's getting, but having time to find a receiver makes a pretty big difference against a defense like that.

Kyler Kasper and Legend Glasker each had 66 receiving yards, while Lyons caught five passes for 49 yards and the winning touchdown. Rex supplied the most productive rushing performance by a BYU back since Martin's injury.

We're going to need that continued level of production from Rex. Moa has been cleared medically to play but we don't know when he'll be ready for playing time at all, let alone a significant role in the offense. The working plan remains an offense built around Bear with Rex getting primary carries and Tonga taking the backup carries.

Bear now has 1,257 passing yards, 9 passing touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He has another 284 yards and 6 touchdowns rushing. His ability to keep the ball forces a defense to account for an extra runner, and Saturday showed how much he can punish a defense when he has space to run.

What to Look For

Can we make UCF defend the pass early?

UCF's run defense is the part of this matchup I take most seriously. The Knights allow 118.3 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. They rank 17th in rushing EPA allowed and first in second-level yards allowed. That second measure describes how much runners gain beyond the initial blocking, in the portion of a run from five to ten yards downfield. UCF has been good at keeping successful starts from becoming longer runs.

BYU's rushing success rate is 50.8%, compared with 37.1% allowed by UCF. Success rate measures whether a play gains enough for its down and distance to keep the offense on schedule. We have been good at that, but Martin helped build those season numbers. Against Notre Dame, the offense had a rushing success rate of 40%, lower than the season average but still significantly better than the 25.4% rushing success Notre Dame had been allowing. We don't need LJ's level of production to keep the offense effective, but getting a similar contribution against UCF will make Bear's job considerably easier.

The passing matchup offers more room. UCF allows 236.8 passing yards per game and a 44.2% passing success rate. BYU succeeds on 50% of its passing plays and has shown significant improvement over the last two games.

I want to see us use that early. Give Bear throws he can complete, involve Glasker and Kasper, and make the linebackers account for Lyons. If UCF has to respect the pass, Rex and Tonga should have a better chance of finding running lanes.

I don't want to spend the first quarter repeatedly running into the strongest part of this defense and asking Bear to rescue third-and-long. I'd also prefer to see Bear keep taking shots downfield while the game is close. We just watched the line protect Bear against a very good pash-rush. Give them a chance to do it again and let the receivers run loose against a shaky pass defense.

Can the defense keep the completions toothless?

Jenkins' completion percentage looks good. UCF's passing success rate of 39.8% is much less impressive.

Both can be true. A short completion on third-and-8 can help the quarterback's percentage while sending the punt team onto the field. BYU will need to tackle well enough in space to keep their success rate low.

The Knights convert 35.6% of their third downs. BYU allows 36.9%. On the other side, our offense converts 56.5%, compared with 38.5% allowed by UCF. Sustaining possessions is one of the clearest advantages we bring into this game.

Watson is the biggest threat rushing for the Knights. His 6.9 yards per carry on the season is a good reminder that even a struggling offense can still have a dangerous weapon if players get out of position or miss a tackle. He was held to 79 yards on 21 carries at Oklahoma State. BYU allows only 86.2 rushing yards per game, and our front should be capable of holding him in check as well. Set the edge, fit the run, and make the tackle. If we do those things, Jenkins should see a lot of obvious passing downs on third and long, which allows our defense to create havoc.

Can we stop giving away field position?

We have won the last two games while making punt returns considerably more stressful than they needed to be.

That has to improve. A defense playing this well should get to defend a long field whenever possible. UCF has enough offensive ability to turn a short field into points, and its home crowd will have plenty to cheer about if we supply an early turnover.

The same applies to penalties. BYU has averaged 53.2 penalty yards per game. We overcame a false start near the goal line before Lyons' winning touchdown Saturday, but it is far more likely for a third and long inside the red zone to end with a field goal or a turnover.

These are all avoidable problems and the defense deserves longer fields to defend. An early stop loses value if we give the ball straight back on the punt. Against a team that has struggled to sustain drives, simply making them start over from their own end of the field can do a lot of the work for us. I would rather trust our offensive line and Bear from inside our own 5 than see special teams fielding risking punts again this season.

The opponent-adjusted EPA charts show a clear advantage for BYU's offense: .193 to UCF's .121. EPA estimates how much a play changes expected scoring value, with the opponent adjustment accounting for the defenses faced.

UCF has the slightly better defensive number, .047 to BYU's .062, where lower is better. They are a strong defensive team, but not at the same level of Notre Dame or TCU. The run defense is good enough to make conservative play-calls struggle.

BYU has already beaten the highest-rated opponent on their schedule, while UCF fits in the middle pack for the season, among games that BYU is expected to win. On the other side, all three of UCF's losses have been to opponents in the upper half of their schedule, and none of them is as highly rated as BYU.

I've heard and seen discussions of this week as a trap game. It's on the East coast, two time zones away, following an emotional game against a top rated opponent. I can understand where the concerns come from. I also think this team has earned some trust. The defense carried us through Fort Worth. Bear had a stellar showing against Iowa State. Against Notre Dame, the offense found the end zone late for a go ahead score and the defense did enough to finish the job.

We won't have the same crowd behind us, and the game won't come with the same buildup. We still need the preparation, tackling, and attention to assignments that made Saturday possible. Being No. 2 means we're going to be the game everyone else circles. It's UCF's chance to make to turn around a mediocre season. And yet, we can trust this team to win without being perfect.

Keys to the Game

1. Protect field position - don't turn over the ball, make their offense sustain drives. They've struggled against lesser defenses and should continue to struggle this week.

2. Give Bear help again - Find ways to get Rex out into space so that Bear doesn't need to carry the ball for the offense to move.

3. Contain the run - keep Watson contained and force Jenkins to win with his arm. He hasn't shown he can consistently do so.

Prediction

I expect UCF to come out with energy. The bye should help a battered roster, the homecoming crowd will be ready, and I expect two weeks of preparation to result in some unexpected looks on both sides of the ball. We will get their best shot.

We also have the better quarterback and a defense capable of smothering UCF often enough to keep scoring low. Bear should find opportunities through the air, and the offense's ability to convert third downs should give us more chances to finish drives.

I expect a competitive first quarter and some space by halftime. After last week, I am ready for a fourth quarter that doesn't require quite so much pacing.

I'll take BYU to win and cover the current 6.5 points, enough to keep the national conversation going for another week.

BYU 31, UCF 13