BYU at Utah - We've Got to Find Another Gear

Last week I said that Utah could wait while we fixed a few things against Arizona State. Well, we're out of time and I'm not convinced we delivered.

We head to Salt Lake City at 7-1, with a chance to hand Utah its first loss and to win a fourth straight Holy War. It's an incredible opportunity, with BYU's whole season potentially tied to the rivalry game; a conference championship berth and the opportunity to finally be invited to the playoffs.

I'd like our chances a whole lot more if we hadn't made both of the last two games feel like an escape room with time about to expire.

We beat Notre Dame; we can beat Utah. But the team that lost to UCF and scraped past Arizona State needs to find another gear, and fast.

About Last Saturday

My late prediction last week picked us to beat ASU 34-14. We won 27-20. I gave the offense far too much credit for how easily I expected us to move the ball against a team that's struggled to stop the run.

47 rushing yards on 30 carries. That's it. Against Arizona State, at home. Sure, we deliberately lost yards on the last possession as we ran out the clock. It was still a rough showing for Moa and co in the backfield.

Bear threw for 236 yards and helped us finish a 95-yard touchdown drive when we desperately needed one. I do trust him in those moments as he's almost always found a way to come through in close games. It would also be really nice to stop letting struggling teams stay within striking range so that we need late heroics to finish the job.

Our defense sacked ASU six times before halftime, then never got home again. Casey Lundquist's Sunday notebook summed it up well: this team keeps flashing potential and then lets opponents back into the game.

I think we all appreciate 7-1, and can still expect better than the performances we've seen. Saturday will demand better.

Game Details

When: Saturday, November 7, 10 a.m. MST / noon EST

Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium

TV: ABC

Line: Utah -5.5

A Holy War brunch. Nothing like starting your weekend with an unhealthy serving of anxiety.

Four Straight?

BYU has won the last three meetings, with the last loss coming in Provo back in 2019. The last two games included a 1 point win in SLC and a 3 point win in Provo. You have to go back to 1989-92 for the last time BYU won four straight in the series.

I'll take another ugly win, happily. After watching Utah win nine straight before our current run, I have zero interest in giving this streak back.

The current standings add plenty of urgency. Utah sits at 5-0 in Big 12 play; we sit at 4-1. Win, and we match their conference loss total, with the head to head result in our pocket. Lose, and we have to spend November chasing help from other teams, with long odds at post-season dreams.

Let's handle our own business.

The November 1 ESPN snapshot ranks Utah 10th and BYU 16th in FPI. Utah's schedule thus far has been a fair bit easier than BYU's, but BYU's loss to UCF wasn't against the more difficult portion of their schedule.

Utah Brings Plenty

Utah just hammered Cincinnati 49-15 after building a 42-6 halftime lead. Devon Dampier completed 15 of 16 passes in the first half. The Utes enter rivalry week feeling good, and deservedly so.

Dampier has 18 passing touchdowns and another 5 rushing. Wayshawn Parker has 726 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. Tight end Hunter Andrews just caught 2 touchdown passes against Cincinnati.

We need a return to form from this defense, with disciplined eyes and sound tackling. Arm tackles and over-pursuit have allowed running backs to gash this defense the last two weeks. Chase the handoff too aggressively, and Dampier will keep it. Lose the tight end while watching the quarterback and Utah will find easy completions on 3rd down.

I respect Utah's offense. I thought it was gimmicky at the start of the season, but teams have struggled to adapt, and they've put up 30+ points against six of their eight opponents. BYU has only scored 30 points against a single FBS opponent in regulation, two if we include the double overtime loss to UCF. The defense needs to step up and make them earn every yard.

Utah brings the stronger offensive percentiles. Our defense limits explosive plays better. Higher percentiles indicate better performance; this comparison excludes garbage time.

Three Things We Need to See

Give Bear some help.

Moa got significant playing time in the last two games, and it's clear that he's not back to full strength. Preston Rex had limited carries against UCF and then was held out against Arizona State. The bigger question has been a goal for LJ Martin to return against Utah. While I'd love to see that, the few comments we have had from coaches don't have me optimistic that he'll be ready to take on the lion's share of carries this week, if he sees the field at all. The early depth chart suggests he won't be playing, so we need a plan to move the ball if he isn't available.

Hopefully Rex is ready to go and can give us similar production to what he did against Notre Dame. Use motion, throw on first down, get the ball to our playmakers Glasker, Kasper, and Lyons, before Bear is looking at third and long.

Bear has completed 67.6% at home and only 54.2% on the road. Three road games this season don't tell his whole story, but they area cause for concern. We need to get him settled early and throwing the ball downfield, not just to the sidelines on short screens.

Our line has only allowed 5 sacks. Give him that protection and a few manageable downs, and I like what he can do.

The road to improve the rushing attack just got tougher against Utah's excellent short-yardage defense.

Dampier currently leads the conference in passing efficiency. Bear has dropped back in effectiveness over the past two weeks.

Get off the field.

Utah converts 54% of third downs. BYU allows 39.3%. This is a matchup that worries me. Keep Dampier inside the box, stay with the receivers when he scrambles. His tendency has been to make one read, then scramble and improvise, which he's done pretty effectively all season.

We don't need to see any more opposing team highlights on third and long.

Utah's rushing success is going to put a lot of pressure on the defense to maintain gap integrity and wrap up.

Finish with touchdowns.

Utah allows opponents to score on only 68.4% of red-zone trips. That includes field goals.

We can’t waste those chances with a false start or another predictable run into the back of the o-line. Spread the defense out, make Utah cover the whole field, and use Bear's legs if the pass isn't there.

Protect the ball, too. Utah scored twice on defense against Cincinnati. Let’s make their offense do its own work.

Opponent adjusted offensive EPA, 2026 through week 9. EPA estimates how much each play changes expected scoring value; higher favors the offense.

Opponent adjusted defensive EPA, 2026 through week 9. EPA estimates how much each play changes expected scoring value; lower favors the defense.

Prediction

Utah has earned the favorite's role. They've played more consistently and they get us at home.

It's also really difficult to pick against BYU. I’ve watched this defense shut down drives. I’ve watched Bear deliver when we needed him most. We have enough to win.

Give me the team that showed up against Notre Dame and Bear at his best in a game without rain.

BYU 24, Utah 23

Four straight. Lets go get it!