#8 BYU vs Arizona State - A Chance to Reset
Well, that was a considerably less enjoyable Saturday than we've come to expect.
One week after beating Notre Dame and climbing to No. 2, BYU went to Orlando and lost 39–31 in double overtime. We definitely had chances to win it. We also gave UCF far too many chances to win it, and eventually they took one.
The Cougars are now 6-1, ranked No. 8, and still have plenty to play for. The Notre Dame win still counts and gives BYU a lot of respect with many AP voters. We've can spent the week arguing about which version of this team is the real one, but now it's time to watch what they do with Arizona State coming to Provo.
I expect a response, a return to form for the defense and a solid showing from the offense. I would also really appreciate a game where we aren't depending on a goal-line stand or a last-minute drive to get out with a win.
With Utah looming on the horizon, we have some things to fix fast.
Last Week
My UCF preview picked BYU to win 31-13 and cover the 6.5 points. I technically got our 31 but the rest was a mess.
I expected UCF to be rested and ready after the bye. I thought their run defense could make things difficult, but trusted our defense to contain Duke Watson and make Keyone Jenkins beat us with his arm.
Unfortunately, he did and we really didn't contain anyone.
Jenkins threw for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns, ran for another score, and didn't turn the ball over. Freshman Tyren Hornes caught 6 passes for 137 yards. UCF gained 463 total yards against a defense that had spent most of the season making opposing offenses miserable.
We gave up completions that should have ended short of the sticks, missed tackles that extended drives, and got only one sack. The now much discussed 3rd-and-17 late in the game? Make that tackle and we get the ball back. Instead, the drive continues, and we have another opportunity to wonder what might have happened.
Bear completed 16 of 32 passes for 257 yards, with 2 passing touchdowns, an odd tip that led to an interception, and another touchdown rushing. Kyler Kasper had his best receiving day of the season with 6 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown. There were good plays available. We didn't string enough of them together.
The running game finished with 116 yards. Preston Rex gained 42 on only 5 carries, while Sione Moa returned and had 36 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts. I am glad to have Moa back, though he clearly wasn't back to pre-injury form. I also want to see Rex involved more this week if he's healthy enough to go.
The ending was ridiculous. We stopped UCF at the goal line, blocked a field goal, survived the confusion that followed, and still couldn't finish in the second overtime. A roughing-the-kicker penalty extended UCF's possession, and our last chance ended with a dropped pass instead of a touchdown. BYU's recap has the details if you feel the need to relive it.
We can be frustrated with our performance and still give UCF credit. They made the plays. We left Orlando with the loss.
Game Details
When: Saturday, October 31, 1:30 p.m. MDT / 3:30 p.m. EDT
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo
TV: FOX
Line: BYU −16
A Brief History Lesson
Arizona State leads the series 21–8. Most of those games came long before the current Big 12, when the schools spent years together in the WAC. The recent history has been much better for BYU, with wins in 1997, 1998, and 2021 before the loss in Tempe two years ago.
The last time ASU came to Provo, Tyler Allgeier chased down an interception return and punched the ball loose, with Jaren Hall recovering it. Baylor Romney later came off the bench and threw the late touchdown to Isaac Rex that helped finish a 27-17 win. That recap is a more pleasant read than last week's. While the Allgeier tomahawk play is legendary, the rest of the game is rather unmemorable.
The 2024 game is harder to forget because we went into their house with a shot at the conference title and the playoffs on the line. We fell behind 21-3 at halftime, recovered enough to have a chance late, and then threw an interception on a drive that could have won it. When ASU's fans rushed the field early, everyone had to clear out, as officials reviewed the clock for when the ball landed out of bounds. Ultimately, Chase Roberts caught the final pass two yards short of the end zone. ASU won 28-23.
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham's team finished 8-5 last season and comes to Provo 4-3 after beating Kansas State 28-17. The Sun Devils have beaten Morgan State, Kansas, Hawai‘i, and K-State. Their losses to Texas A&M, Baylor, and Texas Tech have all been by at least 28 points.
They have also had quite a time finding a quarterback.
Cutter Boley has most of the season's passing production, with 1,360 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Mikey Keene replaced him, then injured his knee against Kansas State. Freshman Jake Fette finished that game and is in line to make his first start Saturday. Keene remains a game-time decision and would start if he's able.
Fette has attempted 8 college passes. That doesn't give us much to work with, and it certainly doesn't mean Dillingham will ask him to throw it 40 times in Provo.
Freshman running back Cardae Mack gives him a much better option. Mack ran for 159 yards and all 4 ASU touchdowns against Kansas State. He has 400 yards on 55 carries this season, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, with 6 rushing touchdowns. If the run fits and tackling are anything like last week, Mack can give us problems. If the defense looks more like what we saw against Notre Dame, it's a different story.
Then there is Reed Harris. The receiver has 47 catches for 800 yards and 8 touchdowns, including 147 yards against K-State. If we give him the room Hornes found last week, the quarterback's experience may not matter much.
ASU averages 30.9 points and 411.6 yards per game, almost the same yardage as BYU. The 70-point opener against Morgan State helps those averages considerably. Against FBS opponents, the Sun Devils sit at 24.3 points per game and only convert 27.7% on third down.
The defense allows 29.9 points per game overall and 4.5 yards per carry. There are opportunities here for our offense to get moving again.
The BYU Side
LJ Martin is out again. So are cornerback Evan Johnson and offensive lineman Trevin Ostler. Rex and Kyle Sfarcioc are listed as probable in the availability reporting.
Sfarcioc's expected return would help a line that has already lost Andrew Gentry and now Ostler. We have allowed only 4 sacks all season, but protecting Bear and opening holes for the backs both need to hold up as the personnel changes.
While Moa's return gives us another experienced runner, hopefully he can take a big step forward this week against a relatively weaker run defense than UCF. Rex showed against Notre Dame that he can give the offense a useful rushing threat, and his limited carries at UCF were productive. I hope to see both get chances without spending a quarter trying to make the same unsuccessful run plan work.
Bear now has 1,514 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He has another 321 yards and 7 touchdowns rushing. Last week wasn't his best game. It also doesn't erase how much he has done to keep this offense moving without LJ.
There is a sizable difference between his home and road production. At home, he has completed 68.8% of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception. Away from Provo, he is at 54.2%, with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Those are small samples against different opponents, including Utah Tech at home and the wet game at TCU on the road. Still, I am glad this one is in Provo.
What to Look For
Can we get the backs going again?
ASU allows 146.4 rushing yards per game and ranks 97th in yards allowed per carry. This is a better opportunity to establish the run than the one we had against UCF.
BYU's rushing success rate is 49.1%, good for 17th nation. Success rate measures whether a play gains enough for the down and distance to keep the offense on schedule. Martin helped build that number, and the last few games have shown how much harder those yards can be without him.
If Rex is playing, I hope to see him get enough work to find a rhythm. I want Moa to take another step forward after knocking some rust off. Give them a clean read, let them get downhill, and make the linebackers respect the handoff before asking Bear to keep it.
We also don't have to prove we can run on every first down. Kasper just had 129 receiving yards, Legend Glasker has 498 for the season, and Walker Lyons can give Bear an answer underneath. Use the whole group. A completion on first down can make the next run a lot easier.
Our offense converts 54.7% of third downs. Staying on schedule is a huge part of converting third downs.
Can the defense get off the field?
ASU converts only 30.1% of third downs overall, ranking 134th nationally. BYU now allows 40%, down in 91st nationally.
That is not where I expected this defense to be after the way it played against TCU and Iowa State.
The Sun Devils have allowed 19 sacks. We need to take advantage of that protection without getting so interested in hitting the quarterback that we lose track of Mack or leave Harris alone behind the defense.
With a freshman potentially making his first start, I expect Dillingham to give him some manageable throws and lean on Mack. Make the tackle on the short completion. Hold the edge when Mack tries to bounce outside. When we get third-and-long, finish the possession.
We don't need a spectacular hit. We need the ballcarrier on the ground before he reaches the marker. And wrap up, for crying out loud.
Johnson's absence makes the coverage assignments even more important. Harris has been productive regardless of which quarterback is throwing to him. I don't want to see a young quarterback in his first start get to settle in because his best receiver is getting easy catches all afternoon.
Can we finish possessions without the extra drama?
BYU has been very good at avoiding sacks and negative plays. The offensive chart has us fourth nationally in havoc allowed at 8.9%. Havoc includes disruptive plays such as tackles for loss, pass breakups, and turnovers.
We have also found ways to make otherwise manageable situations difficult. Penalties, punt-return decisions, and missed opportunities near the goal line continue to show up in close games.
The FBS-only TeamRankings numbers have us at 79.2% in red-zone scoring, 100th nationally. That includes field goals. We were perfect there against Notre Dame, but the season has included too many trips that produced nothing.
Against ASU, I want us to turn the better offensive numbers into points. Finish the catch, avoid the false start, and take care of the ball. If a drive ends with a punt, catch the snap and make the kick. We have enough offense to win this game without supplying theirs with extra opportunities.
Before We Get to Utah
The opponent-adjusted EPA charts give us another reason to expect a better afternoon. EPA measures how much a play changes expected scoring value, with the adjustment accounting for the opponents faced.
BYU's offensive value is .193, compared with .040 for Arizona State. Among the opponents shown, ASU has the lowest offensive number, below TCU and Iowa State. That doesn't make Mack or Harris any easier to tackle, but this should be an offense we can get off the field against.
On defense, where lower is better, BYU is at .062 and ASU is at .162. The Sun Devils sit behind UCF, Notre Dame, TCU, Arizona, and Iowa State in this comparison. We have faced better defenses and moved the ball. I want to see us take advantage of this one, particularly on the ground.
ASU has already played Texas A&M and Texas Tech on the road, so the Sun Devils have seen difficult environments. They lost both games by 28.
We should be the better team Saturday. We were supposed to be the better team last week, too, and that didn't get us a win.
There is still a conference race to play, a rivalry game next week, and a chance to make a strong playoff case. While losing at UCF made that more difficult, it doesn't have to define the season.
For now, I would like to see the line create some room, the defense make the tackles it should, and Bear get enough help that he can spend the fourth quarter handing the ball off with a comfortable lead.
Keys to the Game
1. Get the backs involved - Give Rex and Moa useful carries, take some pressure off Bear.
2. Finish the tackle - Live the cliche, each man do his one 11th. Contain Mack, stay with Harris, and turn third-and-long into a punt.
3. Finish our chances - Turn scoring-range possessions into points and stop extending the opponent's drives with avoidable mistakes.
Prediction
I expect BYU to play much better at home. ASU has a dangerous back and an excellent receiver, but its protection has struggled and its defense has allowed plenty of room in the running game.
That should give us a chance to get Rex and Moa going while Bear finds Kasper, Glasker, and Lyons. I expect the defense to respond, too. Fette may give the Sun Devils a spark if he starts, but asking him to sustain drives in Provo behind this protection is a difficult first assignment.
I don't expect us to fix everything in a week. I still think that coming home and playing an opponent we match up well with will help the team bounce back and be in firm control in the 4th quarter.
I'll take BYU to win and cover the 16 points. Then we can talk about Utah.
BYU 34, Arizona State 14
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