#11 BYU @ Colorado State - Don't Let Them Believe
BYU’s first road game of the season takes us back to Fort Collins and an old conference opponent we haven’t seen in sixteen years.
On paper, this is a game BYU should win. Colorado State went 2–10 last season, replaced its head coach, and rebuilt almost the entire offense. But the Rams are also 2–0, they just scored 58 points, and their new quarterback has thrown nine touchdown passes in two games. Canvas Stadium drew a record crowd for the Wyoming game, and there should be plenty of belief in the building when the Cougars arrive.
This is not the most difficult game on BYU’s schedule. It is likely the easiest remaining game. It is still the first time this team has had to leave Provo, handle an energized crowd, and play an opponent that thinks it may have found something.
That makes this week's assignment pretty simple: don’t give them a reason to believe.
Last Week
BYU’s 28–17 win over Arizona was a solid win and a useful reminder that games don’t always follow the clean version we imagine during the week.
I expected BYU to run the ball well, protect it, and find opportunities against Arizona’s rebuilt secondary. And that is ultimately what we saw happen. LJ Martin finished with 98 rushing yards, Bear Bachmeier threw three touchdown passes without a turnover, and Kyler Kasper caught two of them. Legend Glasker’s 61-yard catch in the fourth quarter set up the score that finally put the game away.
What I didn’t expect was Arizona controlling so much of the first half. The Wildcats gained 240 yards before halftime and led 17–14. BYU’s offense had only 142 yards, Martin had 25 on the ground, and a rash of penalties made things harder than necessary.
Despite the first half struggles, the team came out of the locker room for the second half absolutely locked in. The defense held Arizona scoreless and allowed only 87 yards, including -2 rushing yards. Martin ran for an additional 73 yards, Tausili Akana took over the pass rush, and BYU finished the game taking a knee at Arizona’s 4 yard line rather than adding another score.
My prediction was BYU 34, Arizona 24. The Cougars covered the spread and won by nearly the same margin, although the game was lower scoring and much less comfortable early than I expected. The main point I made was that if this BYU is a playoff-caliber team, it should clearly be the better team against the middle and lower part of its schedule. Against Arizona, it took a half before that became obvious.
I would prefer not to wait that long this week.
Game Details
When: Saturday, September 19, 5:30 p.m. MDT
Where: Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, Colorado
TV: CBS
Spread: BYU -17.5
An Old Opponent in a New Stadium
BYU and Colorado State have played 69 times, most recently as members of the Mountain West in 2010. BYU won that game 49–10 at Hughes Stadium behind 526 yards of offense. Jake Heaps threw four touchdown passes, all to Luke Ashworth, and the Cougars converted 12 of 13 third downs.
BYU leads the series 39–27–3 and has won 7 straight. The history gives this game some familiarity, but not much tactical value. These teams haven’t met since Bronco Mendenhall’s tenure, and Canvas Stadium didn’t open until 2017.
The current version of Colorado State barely resembles last year’s team.
Colorado State
The Rams collapsed from 8–5 in 2024 to 2–10 last season, fired Jay Norvell during the year, and lost their final 6 games. They averaged 18.5 points, allowed 30.8, gave up more than 200 rushing yards per game, and surrendered 32 sacks.
Jim Mora took over after four seasons at UConn and attacked the roster as aggressively as you would expect in the portal era. Colorado State signed 38 transfers, including 18 players with a previous connection to Mora at UConn. 17 Rams made their first CSU start against Wyoming. 10 of the 11 offensive starters were new, while center Phillip Ocon was the lone remainder of the old squad.
That's about as close to a new team as you can get without changing the logo.
For Colorado State fans, the early results have been encouraging. They beat Wyoming 35–13 to reclaim the Bronze Boot, then overwhelmed Southern Utah 58–24. Through two games, the Rams are averaging 537 yards and 46.5 points. They have forced 8 turnovers and allowed only 1 sack.
Hauss Hejny has been the most important addition. The former TCU and Oklahoma State quarterback is 41-of-63 for 539 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He has also rushed for 124 yards, including a 75 yard touchdown. CSU uses his movement well, and he is much more dangerous when a defense loses contain than he is standing in one spot and reading a clean pocket.
A massive part of their offensive success has come from big plays. Mel Brown has 228 rushing yards on only 17 carries. Jackson Harper, RJ Vick, Terrence Smith Jr., and Cedric Ross are all averaging at least 12 yards per catch. The Rams have already produced touchdowns of 57, 68, 73, 75, and 80 yards.
Colorado State’s offensive explosiveness is the strongest part of their early profile, as shown on the radar chart below. BYU has been more balanced, especially on defense, but the Rams have so far had a lot of success finding the big breakaway plays.
There are reasons to slow down before declaring CSU’s turnaround complete. Southern Utah gained 442 yards, ran for 206, and completed a 75-yard pass. Brown ran for 171 yards, but 153 came on two carries. While the Rams have been hitting home runs at an absurd rate, we haven’t seen them consistently build drives against a defense like BYU’s.
The turnovers deserve the same caution. Forcing 4 in each of the first 2 games has been a huge part of CSU’s scoring margin. That is a credit to the Rams, particularly linebacker Oumar Diomande, who has intercepted a pass in both games. It is also unlikely to continue at that pace.
The BYU Side
Bear was good against Arizona without needing to be spectacular. He completed 16 of 26 passes for 217 yards, threw three touchdowns, ran for another, and once again kept the ball out of danger. Through two games, BYU has 5 takeaways and no giveaways.
A clean start matters more than chasing stats with high passing yards. Colorado State has lived on turnovers and short fields. Against Southern Utah, the Rams scored their first 2 touchdowns in a span of 52 seconds after a 68 yard completion and a fumble recovery. The fastest way to make Canvas Stadium feel dangerous would be to hand CSU the ball near the red zone.
Bear’s efficiency shines against the rest of the Big 12. Passer efficiency rating measures the traditional passing production (yards, touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, and completions) while ESPN’s QBR also accounts for rushing, game situation, down, and distance. Bear sits in the top-right corner of both measures, alongside Utah quarterback Devon Dampier.
The injury picture is less encouraging. Sione Moa reportedly had surgery for MCL and PCL tears, and I don’t expect him back this season. Raider Damuni was already expected to miss multiple games with his knee injury. Pierson Watson and Isaiah Glasker were able to play against Arizona after appearing on last week’s availability report, which is good news for both sides of the ball.
Because this is a nonconference game, we won’t get the same mandatory Big 12 availability report schedule we had last week. Unless something changes in practice, I expect Tommy Prassas to remain at safety with Cannon DeVries heavily involved, and Martin to get the lion’s share of the work at running back. Preston Rex appears to be the next back in a competitive game; Devaughn Eka did not get a carry against Arizona after a strong opener.
What to Look For
Can BYU make CSU drive the field? Colorado State’s 312 passing yards per game and 225 rushing yards per game look imposing. The focus will be preventing those numbers from arriving in 70 yard chunks.
BYU has allowed 255.5 yards per game, including only 73 on the ground, and Arizona finished with -2 rushing yards in the second half. The defense has also allowed only one pass longer than 34 yards. While I'm sure Coach Poppinga would love to see every pass batted away, he doesn't need the defense to successfully defend every pass. He needs the Cougars to tackle, keep the ball in front of them, and make Hejny sustain long drives
Akana’s 2.5 sacks against Arizona were a welcome sign. Like the Arizona game, pressure has to come with containment. Hejny’s rebuilt offensive line has allowed only one sack, but BYU is the first front it has faced that should consistently win one-on-one matchups. The Cougars can make him uncomfortable without giving him an open lane to turn a hurried throw into a 20-yard run.
Between Bear and LJ, BYU has one of the most dominate rushing attacks in the country through the first two weeks. Rush success rate measures how often a team is staying on schedule for the down and distance on running plays. BYU has been absolutely elite at getting enough yards to stay ahead of the sticks. The Cougars rank near the top of the country in line yards, second-level yards, rushing success rate, and power success.
Across the field, CSU has been particularly vulnerable against the rush. Colorado State allowed 204.9 rushing yards per game last season. With a different roster, the Rams are still allowing 174.5 per game and 4.8 per carry. Even Southern Utah ran for 206 yards.
This is where I want to see BYU make Colorado State prove it can hold up. Give Martin the ball, stay ahead of the sticks, and force the Rams to commit another defender or two to the box. That creates cleaner play-action throws for Bear and keeps CSU’s offense standing on the sideline.
The one CSU number that should get BYU’s attention is havoc. The Rams have created tackles for loss, turnovers, and disrupted plays at one of the highest rates in the country. I know it came against a weak schedule, and BYU’s offense has been excellent at avoiding havoc, but the holding penalties against Arizona repeatedly erased good plays. The Rams don’t need to stop Martin all night if BYU stops itself often enough.
JTHOM Analytics gives a team rated No. 12 a 95% chance to beat Colorado State. Only Utah Tech appears easier on BYU’s full schedule. While the most important thing is to leave Colorado 3-0 with a clean bill of health, margin of victory does influence AP voters and impact models that evaluate team strength. Great teams learn to handle games like this without spending all night in danger. BYU needs to win this game without the drama.
CSU is 2–0 for the first time since 2011. The Rams have a new coach, a fun quarterback, and a fan base with a reason to show up. If BYU starts with penalties, missed tackles, or a turnover, all that energy becomes part of the game. If the Cougars run the ball, force a couple of punts, and take an early lead, the gap in depth and physicality should become more obvious as the night goes on.
Keys to the Game
Run the ball and stay patient - Martin is the most dependable player in the matchup, and CSU’s run defense has not shown it can stop this kind of offensive line for a half, let alone 4 quarters.
Contain Hejny and eliminate the explosives - Pressure him without opening escape lanes. Make CSU earn its points through long drives instead of missed fits and bad angles.
Protect the football and clean up the penalties - Colorado State has eight takeaways. BYU has zero giveaways. Don’t let one reckless possession or another holding call turn a comfortable matchup into a road fight.
Prediction
Colorado State is more interesting than it looked in August. Hejny has given the offense an identity, the Rams are creating turnovers, and I expect them to land at least one big play at home.
I still don’t think they can stop BYU’s running game, and I don’t trust an offense built on five touchdowns of 57 yards or longer to reproduce that against this defense. BYU can make this game boring by forcing long drives and holding onto the football.
I’ll take BYU to take a two score lead into the half and then slow the game down in the second half to reach 3-0 for the fourth straight season.
BYU 37, Colorado State 16
Comments